WEATHER BLOG: First taste of Fall arrives Monday, even stronger front possible next weekend


Today was another hot day across the area with highs topping out in the lower 90s and heat index values near 100 degrees. Hopefully, tomorrow will be the last day we see highs north of 90 degrees, although 1 or 2 more days could be possible between fronts later this week unfortunately.

We are seeing the signs the pattern is transitioning into a more Fall-like regime. For starters, the troughs are now getting deeper and more progressive, causing the surface fronts to make it further south.

The first of these fronts will arrive on Monday. The front could bring us a rain chance Monday afternoon, followed by temperatures quickly dropping by Monday evening with north winds increasing. Temperatures could reach the lower 60s by Tuesday morning. Even under full sun, Tuesday afternoon will feature lower humidity and highs only in the low 80s.

Summer won’t give up without a fight though! By Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures could push 90 degrees again with humidity returning temporarily. By next Friday, both the GFS and European models show a stronger front making its move towards Acadiana. There are some subtle timing differences with this front on the models, but both show temperatures dropping sharply by next weekend. The GFS model is most aggressive, showing a morning start near 50 degrees next Saturday morning and highs only in the lower 70s next Saturday afternoon! European model is aggressive, but not as aggressive as the GFS. For now, I’ll go with a blend of the two models for the forecast next weekend. Either way, it appears prolonged days in the 90s will become a memory this upcoming week!

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