A nice weekend looks to have been a temporary gift for Acadiana as an active weather pattern will be developing across the south-central United States this week. An active jet stream will swing multiple upper-level disturbances across the area and a front will become semi-stalled across the region through Thursday.
The first disturbance will swing through tomorrow, developing rain and storm activity across Texas tonight, moving into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama tomorrow. Most of the storm activity will develop through tomorrow afternoon along a frontal boundary, that will be positioned mainly to the north of Acadiana. Sometimes, when the precipitation axis sets up further north of Acadiana, it robs the atmospheric lift further south, leading to slightly drier conditions for Acadiana. Knowing this, I’m not totally sold on a 70-80% coverage type of day across south Louisiana. However, enough atmospheric instability will be present to swing showers and storms our way through the day tomorrow. I would not be surprised, though, if most of the action stays to our north.
We may get a bit of a break Tuesday as the action will mainly develop along a stalled frontal boundary to the north. This front may try to slide close enough Tuesday evening to develop a few storms across the area.
I think the most active weather day will be on Wednesday, as a stronger upper-level impulse moves across the region. This will develop a surface low pressure, that will work across the state Wednesday afternoon. Not only do I expect Acadiana to see the highest rain coverage on Wednesday, but I think that’s when the greatest severe weather threat will materialize. The threat definitely looks higher across northeastern Louisiana/southwestern Mississippi, as the low pressure will get stronger through the day as it moves northeastward, but enough wind dynamics will be there to lead to a severe threat for Acadiana as well. Damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes could all be possible, starting Wednesday morning and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. The threat level appears to be on the low side as it stands now!
The front finally moves through on Thursday, giving us nice weather and cooler conditions both Thursday and Friday. A chilly start is expected Friday morning, with readings possibly in the upper 30s to lower 40s!
Another disturbance looks to bring back the rain chances for the weekend.