We have had two named storms so far, but June and July are usually quieter as they are not during the peak of hurricane season. Did you know that 95% of major hurricanes occur after August 1st? Unfortunately, the most active part of the season is just beginning, so we’ll have to watch closely through the next few weeks.
A tropical wave continues to chug westward across the Atlantic, still east of the Lesser Antilles islands. This is the same disturbance that had a high chance for development a few days ago, but now development chances have dropped. This is mainly due to westerly shear being imparted on the system by a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), positioned over the Caribbean, and dry air.
The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 40% chance for development within the next five days as it moves west-northwest, approaching Puerto Rico by Tuesday/Wednesday. Models are not overly impressed with the system and do not show much development as it moves west-northwest through next week. We’ll continue to monitor, but as of now this system poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico or Louisiana. A trough, positioned over the eastern U.S., should shove whatever becomes of this system east of the area.
This wave is in the Main Development Region (MDR), which is a region between the Lesser Antilles islands and Africa. The African Easterly Jet, moves disturbances into the warm waters of the Atlantic and this area is a breeding ground for Atlantic tropical systems. We begin to monitor this area closer heading into August and September.
Although this area produces many of the tropical waves that become tropical systems, we also have to watch for homegrown development, mainly produced by old frontal boundaries or upper-level lows closer to the U.S. As of now, nothing is imminent as a threat, but expect things to get busy the next few weeks.