Tropical development possible in the Gulf this week

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A tropical wave has a low chance of development as it moves into the Gulf this week. It will bring tropical moisture to the Gulf Coast by the end of the workweek.

(WWL-TV) — A tropical wave near Puerto Rico will bring deep tropical moisture into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle and end of this week. This means rain chances will likely go up on Thursday and Friday.

The NHC does now give this tropical wave a low chance of development as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico this week. It looks like regardless of development it will bring moisture and rainfall to the Gulf Coast. 

The wave will ride around a ridge to our north and east, which will steer it towards Texas. However, we could still see rain from the system as it will carry a rather large area of deep tropical moisture. For now we’ll just keep a close on it.

This is common for systems like this to remain weak in the Atlantic and become a little more organized once they get in the Gulf of Mexico. It is hurricane season, so it’s always important to have your plan ready to put into action. For now we’ll just keep an eye on it.  

The official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season was June 1. This season is predicted to be more active than average, due to factors like a potential La Nina event by September and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures.

NOAA’s forecast issued on May 21 predicted 13-19 named storms of which 6-10 would be hurricanes and 3-6 would be major hurricanes (of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha which formed in May were the first two named storms of the year in the Atlantic. This is the sixth year in a row with a named storm forming earlier than the official start of hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico on June 2, which made it the earliest third named storm on record in the Atlantic Basin. The previous record was Tropical Storm Colin on June 5, 2016. The messy Cristobal made landfall east of Grand Isle on June 7. Storm surge reached 3-6 feet along parts of our Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Rain totals for most of our area were 2-5 inches, while sustained winds across our area were 20-40 mph. Some much higher rain totals and other impacts like tornadoes were felt well east of Louisiana as far as Florida.

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76°F Scattered clouds with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm developing overnight. Low 76F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 30%.
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4 mph SSE
Precip
20%
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