A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for the parishes highlighted in red through 7 pm this evening. A new tornado watch may have to be issued later tonight if storms are still ongoing across Acadiana.
Radar as of 2:30 pm shows storms moving over central parts of the state with a surface low pressure moving eastward across southeastern Oklahoma. This low pressure is increasing the wind field across the area, creating strong southerly winds, which are feeding storms to the north of us.
This low pressure should intensify slightly through the next few hours as it moves east-southeastward. This will increase low-level spin and shear in the atmosphere. For this reason, I feel the tornado threat could increase through the next few hours across central parts of the state and move into Acadiana later in the evening.
This main low pressure, causing all the wind shear, is expected to quickly move out later this evening, so wind dynamics may weaken a bit before storms get into Acadiana later tonight. We’ve seen before, however, that storms can go severe pretty easily in our tropical environment with even marginal severe weather ingredients, so we’ll have to watch closely.
The time window to see the worst storms across central parts of the state will probably be 3 pm until 6 pm, with storms rolling into Acadiana between the 7 pm-11 pm window.
The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, but tornadic storms cannot be ruled out, especially quick spin-ups embedded within the broken line of storms. A level three risk of storms is shown across northern portions of Acadiana and central parts of the state.
A level two risk further to the south across Acadiana.
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