An upper-level trough is approaching the area from the west tonight with storms blossoming out across the Gulf waters and southeastern Texas. These storms will be working into the area later tonight and through the day tomorrow. With the parameters and variables in place, we are advertising the threat of some heavier rainfall and the possibility of a few severe storms.
SEVERE THREAT…The atmospheric profiles features winds that are getting stronger and turning with height. This leads to the possibility of a few severe storms. Analyzing things from my perspective, I feel the greatest threat will be tornadoes as a few storms could gain rotation with the amount of spin in the atmosphere. If storms can grow linear, a damaging wind threat could be possible. However, there is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, which means storms could grow numerous and messy. This is a good thing in terms of severe weather as often times the abundance of moisture can put a damper on the damaging wind threat. Think of it this way, severe storms need fresh warm air to suck in to feed themselves and continue to produce severe weather. A messy situation of storms and rain-cooled air can rob storms of that energy. Let’s hope that happens! The greatest dynamics in the atmosphere look to come in between 3-8am per high-resolution models. This will be the time, I feel, we’ll have to watch for severe storms the most, although a few stronger storms could be possible through the Noon hour tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms tomorrow.
HEAVY RAIN THREAT…As mentioned above, the atmosphere contains high levels of moisture. Coupled with that is the upper-level wind field, which is moving in two different directions. We call this divergence, which can sometimes lead to an enhancement in the heavy rainfall potential. Seeing these variables in place I feel some isolated areas could see flash flooding, especially where storms move over some of the same areas. I believe the greatest chance of this happening may be near coastal areas where the energy will be maximized. Overall, most of the area may not see much rainfall, but isolated areas could definitely pick up 2-5 inches, some of it falling within a one-to-two-hour window. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued across the area covering tonight and tomorrow.