LAFAYETTE, La. (KLFY) – Clouds increase as moisture and warm air surge northward out ahead of an upper-level disturbance tracking into the area. This disturbance will increase the wind field aloft through tonight, giving us a chance for thunderstorms, some of which could be strong-to-severe.
Instability will be lacking in the atmosphere as a warm front, which brings in instability, will be locked near the coast. This warm front staying to our south will limit a more widespread severe weather event. However, there will be some instability aloft, which could be enough to produce stronger thunderstorms, especially hail and wind-producing storms.
Mid-level winds will be quite strong as the upper-level feature moves through the area. If storms grow linear, these stronger winds can easily be brought down to the surface, leading to isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but with instability lacking it will be hard for many tornadoes to develop. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has us hatched in for a level 1 risk for severe storms with a level 2 risk further to the northwest as the afternoon sun may increase instability levels across eastern Texas.
Primetime to see storms will be from midnight until 6am. Storms will begin across western areas as early as 1am and move into the heart of Acadiana between 3-6am.
Rainfall totals could be in the half-inch to one-inch range, which is some much-needed rainfall to help with our drought situation.