An upper-level trough will begin to work into the south-central U.S. as we head through tomorrow. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure will develop across eastern Texas tomorrow morning and work across the northern portions of Louisiana through the afternoon and evening.
Storms will begin to blossom across eastern Texas during the morning hours. These storms will work into Acadiana during the heart of the afternoon. Wind shear, winds turning and/or increasing intensity with height, is impressive enough where some storms could gain rotation. Isolated tornadoes will be a risk in the afternoon, especially with discreet cells.
Later in the evening, along the main front, a squall line feature could develop. This is when the threat will transition into more of a damaging wind setup, although a few tornadoes could still be possible embedded within the main line. The temperature drop with height is particularly impressive, especially in the mid-levels. There is a also a pocket of dry air aloft, just above ground level. Pockets of dry air aloft can lead to evaporative cooling, which can cool the air, bring it down to the surface, and bring the strong winds down with it. For this reason, looking at atmospheric profiles, I believe damaging winds will be the primary threat tomorrow evening, especially across southeastern LA/southwestern MS. The Storm Prediction Center is going with an Enhanced “Level 3/5” risk for tomorrow. This means that severe weather episodes could be more long-lived and widespread. Although I think this threat may be a bit overdone, the threat is still respectable tomorrow and should be taken seriously.
TIMING: Discreet cells will begin to move into Acadiana during the afternoon hours, between 2-6pm. The main line looks to work through the heart of Acadiana between 5-9pm.
WHAT TO DO: If you live in a mobile home, it may be a good idea to stay with a friend or family member. This is true for any severe weather day. Deaths from weather-related events are extremely rare in Louisiana, but mobile homes can increase your risk for injury as even a low-end tornado can flip or toss these types of homes. Otherwise, download the KLFY weather app and tune into KLFY through the day for updates and you should be just fine!