We reached 105 degrees Saturday afternoon for a high temperature and it looks as though we’ll be in similar territory this afternoon. Remains chances continue to look minimal today, less than 10%.
By tomorrow, a tropical disturbance will move to our south, earmarked for Texas on Tuesday. Moisture from this system could reach the coast, possibly as far north as I-10, by tomorrow afternoon. This could spark off a few isolated storms, but rain chances will only be 20-30% at best. At the very least, the increased cloud cover will halt the extreme heat some, with highs expected to be closer to 100 degrees versus 105 degrees.
The heat ridge will continue to build southward by the middle and end of the week. This will give us the hottest stretch we’ve seen yet. The European model, which has been the model to turn to through the duration of this heatwave, shows a high of 105 degrees on Wednesday. The National Blend of Models (NBM), which is a good average to use when forecasting daily highs, is also showing near 105 degrees. By Thursday, higher temperatures could be achieved. The European model has shown anywhere from 106-108 degrees on successive runs. The all-time high temperature for Lafayette, meaning the highest temperature ever recorded, is 107 degrees. We could come very close to that on Thursday with my current forecast high being 107 degrees. It will all depend on the mixing of the atmosphere and if we get any cooling clouds or storm activity to develop, which could knock off a few degrees from that reading.
Rain chances look minimal through the week, but could increase slightly by the weekend.
Tropics remain active with newly formed Tropical Depression Six moving across the open waters of the Atlantic. This system will have a brief life and no significant impacts are expected.
Four other distinct areas have chances to develop per the National Hurricane Center, with two areas having a ‘High’ risk of development through the next seven days. Good news to report as none of these systems pose an immediate threat to Louisiana. The closest one, the disturbance entering the Gulf, should move into Texas Tuesday.