West Atlantic Satellite
East Atlantic Satellite
Isaías weakened into a tropical storm over the weekend and spared much of Florida from major impacts as it stayed well offshore. This Monday morning, Isaías has re-strengthened and is on the cusp of becoming a Category 1 Hurricane later today. Expected landfall is across the Carolinas tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread rains will move all the way up the northeastern coast as the system gradually weakens.
Isaías manage to strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane overnight with wind speeds this morning sustained at 75 mph. Hurricane Isaías is forecasted to intensify further this weekend as it moves quickly over the Bahamas. Models continue to show a harder turn to the north later this weekend, keeping much of the system just offshore of Florida. Isaías is expected to skirt most of the east coast where it could bring significant impacts to certain states depending on how far west the center is able to travel. We are not expecting this system to reach the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Isaías finally became official overnight as it formed in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds this morning are at 60 mph as the system is moving quickly to the northwest at 20 mph. The interaction with the Caribbean Islands should keep Isaías from strengthening and in fact, the National Hurricane Center shows weakening over the next two days. Now that we have a better-defined system, models made a large easterly shift overnight and the NHC Forecast Cone has shifted eastward too. Isaías will not be a threat to Acadiana or Louisiana.
As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it has not fully developed into a tropical system yet. The latest forecast cone shows PTC 9 developing into Tropical Storm Isaías as early as today as it moves over the northern Caribbean Islands. This interaction with land should keep strengthening minimal with this system in the coming days. Over the weekend, the future Isaías should make a more northerly turn towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of strength, widespread rains look likely for much of Florida this weekend into early next week. There is a slim risk where this disturbance could reach the Gulf of Mexico but I think it stays well east of Louisiana in that scenario.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The NHC issues these when there is a tropical system that is on the verge of forming but has yet to form. PTC 9 is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaías as early as this evening. Isaías will skirt the northern Caribbean Islands in the coming days before making a turn northward towards Florida and the east coast this weekend. As of today, this system does not look like a threat to much of the Gulf Coast but we will be monitoring this closely.
ORIGINAL POST 7/27/2020:
A broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic is on track to becoming a tropical system soon, more than likely, Tropical Storm Isaías. Pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs”. There is a lot of time to watch as it heads westward. Too early to know if it reaches the U.S. but models are suggesting a northerly turn to the east coast in the 8 to 10 day period.