As expected, light showers continuing across the area for this afternoon with the frontal boundary draped right across the area. Highs got in the 70s today, but expect temperatures to drop overnight tonight as the front moves down to the south. In fact, things could get chilly later tonight as overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 40s for the I-10 corridor.
The front may temporarily move down to the south for tomorrow, so I’ve lowered rain chances across the area into the isolated range. It also appears tomorrow will be a cooler day with highs only getting into the low 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
Moisture returns quickly for Tuesday as the front comes back northward as a warm front. A round of rain will be possible, associated with the warm front passage, but it appears the heaviest rainfall and atmospheric lift may stay north of us on Tuesday. Through Tuesday night, rainfall totals will stay modest, possibly in the 1-1.5 inch range.
Rainfall totals begin to pile up heading through Wednesdy and Thursday as a cold front stalls right across the area. These appears to be the days that the heavier rainfall could be possible, as both atmospheric lift and upper-level energy increase across the area. Rainfall totals Wednesday and Thursday could be in the 1-3 inch range, with isolated higher amounts across the central and northern parts of the state.
Another piece of upper-level energy comes in on Friday, allowing the front to move northward as a a warm front. This could temporarily push the widespread rainfall further northward and also bring very warm temperatures. In fact, readings could be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for Friday and Saturday.
The front will make its final push as a cold front Saturday night and next Sunday, giving us another round of heavier rainfall across the area.
Adding it together, rainfall totals of 2-5 inches will be possible across Acadiana through the next seven days, with isolated higher amounts possible. The higher amounts could be more likely across the central and northern portions of the state, heading into Mississippi. It appears Acadiana will get off relatively easy, however, as parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Tenneesee could be looking at a 6-9 inch rain event. If we receive our 2-5 inches over a seven day period, the flooding threat will be minimal. The ground is dry enough where it can handle a slow and steady rain of this magnitude. Area rivers and creeks will begin to swell up though heading through the week and beyond. This is especially true for waterways connected to the Mississippi river, as this widespread southeastern U.S. rain is sure to make the river rise through the next 1-3 weeks.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier