TROPICAL UPDATE: Heavy rain possible late week as potential tropical system moves north

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National Hurricane Center is still giving our area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche a 60% percent chance for development within the next five days.

A recon aircraft could investigate the area tomorrow if it gains further organization overnight. Forecast calls for this system to continue moving to the northwest, with a gradual bend to the north or northeast by mid-week as it gets picked up by a trough of low pressure.

One thing I can’t stress enough is not to buy into the hype. As meteorologists who like to calm the public while telling them what they need to know, it gets increasingly difficult during hurricane season when bullish forecasts start getting released to elicit responses (click bait). This system, even if it does develop, is not expected to become a hurricane. These monsoonal type systems usually become large disorganized rain-makers, especially as they get caught up in troughs and get “strung out.” The only cause for concern, of course, is the fact that this area and areas north of us cannot afford to see any more rainfall. Some coastal flooding could become possible as well heading through Thursday and Friday.

Some models keep this as an area of deep tropical moisture that moves into our area by Thursday and Friday. Others, like the European model, keep a weak area of low pressure across the northern Gulf, moving northeastward into Acadiana by Thursday night. Keep in mind, this low pressure will probably strengthen middle and late week, but due to trough interaction and not fully tropical processes. So even if the European verifies, this will be like any other strong low pressure system moving through in the winter, meaning tides will run a few feet above normal and things could get a little breezy Thursday and Friday. The only thing flying through the air should be leaves, so don’t go stock up on the milk, bread, and Pop tarts just yet. The one concern I have is models like the European showing the possibility of several inches (4-8 inches) of rainfall across the area through Friday. If the low pressure works across this area, bringing the amount of moisture the model is depicting, we could easily see a more significant rain event across Acadiana and areas north of here across the Mississippi and Red river watersheds. Some models try to linger this system to our north through the weekend, which wouldn’t be welcomed news. It’s WAY TOO EARLY to know how much rainfall and where it will setup so stay tuned!

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