The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure across the southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC has a 60% chance this disturbance will form into at least a Tropical Depression in the coming days as it slowly moves northwest towards the Mexican Coast. Regardless of development, heavy rains will spread into Mexico and then eventually into Texas and Louisiana.
The deep tropical moisture associated with this disturbance will continue to surge northward towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, which will increase rain chances across Acadiana from Wednesday through Saturday. Heavy rains are possible, especially on Thursday. At this time, Acadiana could receive 3-5″ inches of rain with isolated higher amounts possible, spread over a 4 day period.
There is a small possibility that this disturbance could stay enough offshore that it develops into a weak tropical system as it scoots across the Texas Gulf Coast. This scenario is highly unlikely at this time but a Tropical Depression or a weak Tropical Storm Barry is still something we will need to closely monitor through the disturbance’s lifespan. Stronger winds and rough offshore waters would be more likely if this disturbance were to better organize. I think some gusty winds are still possible on Wednesday and Thursday along with a low threat for severe weather, regardless of development.
Overall, we are looking at a heavy rain threat for the latter half of the week while other impacts are determined by how the disturbance tracks and organizes over the coming days.
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