Rain chances increasing, activity brewing in the tropics

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Our reprieve from rain chances will end tomorrow as moisture streams back northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This is in response to high pressure retreating from the area. This will aid in the development of storms both tomorrow and Sunday afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees both days, as feels like temperatures reach near 100 degrees. 

The main story will be a broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean that shows signs of development within the next five days. In fact, the National Hurricane Center has a high (70%) chance of tropical development of this system within the five day window. The system will be slow to develop though, due to its broad nature. It is expected to approach the Yucatan peninsula by Sunday. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure, currently located across the eastern seaboard, will break down, allowing the system to head northwest/northward.

The pattern is pretty straight forward with this one, but where the area of low pressure concentrates itself will be important in terms of overall track. Most models, at current time, are favoring a path towards the central or eastern Gulf by the middle parts of next week. This would put us on the dry side of things, but of course this track is not set in stone four to five days out. As far as intensity, if the system does develop, a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane is not out of the question. I do think, however, that it may struggle to ramp up due to its broad size. We will continue to monitor the progress of this system through the weekend and next week. Pictured below is the latest GFS and European models for next week. Notice both the European and GFS currently have a tropical storm/weak hurricane moving northward towards the Mississippi/Alabama/Florida coastline by next Wednesday. 

Behind this system, our first big cool front of the season could move through by next Thursday. In fact, by Friday morning, the GFS model has low temperatures in the mid-60s! 

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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