Lower Chance for a Tropical System to Form in Gulf but Heavy Rains Still Expected for Acadiana

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The National Hurricane Center has lowered the chance that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico to 50% but the impacts to Acadiana will remain the same as rain chances ramp up across the area.

Starting as early as tonight, scattered showers and storms will spread into Acadiana.  Rain chances are expected to increase to and stay around 60-70% for the rest of the week.  Heavier rains are still possible Wednesday through Friday.  Overall, Acadiana is forecasted to receive 3-5″ inches of rain with isolated higher amounts over a 4 day period.  Flash flooding is possible in isolated areas.    

There is still a small possibility that this disturbance could stay enough offshore that it develops into a weak tropical system as it scoots across the Texas Gulf Coast.  This scenario is highly unlikely but a Tropical Depression or a weak Tropical Storm Barry is still something we will need to closely monitor  through the disturbance’s lifespan.  Stronger winds and rough offshore waters would be more likely if this disturbance were to better organize.  I think some gusty winds are still possible on Wednesday and Thursday along with a low threat for severe weather, regardless of development.  As tides run around 1-2′ feet above normal, some coastal flooding is possible for the second half of the week.

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