High rain chances for much of next week, heavier rainfall possible

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Partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures for your Sunday with highs in the mid-80s. Southeast winds in the 6-14 mph range will continue to bring in the low-level moisture, keeping humidity high. Enjoy the nice weather tomorrow, however, as changes are expected for next week.

A cut-off low-pressure system will begin to work into the desert southwest tomorrow. This feature will slowly work eastward into Texas by Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, a strong high-pressure ridge will build across the eastern U.S. This will stop the feature from progressing eastward through the middle and end of next week. Meanwhile, the high pressure will also keep a moist, southeasterly flow across the region for much of next week. This will continue to bring in deep tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Adding in the atmospheric lift from the cut-off low to the west, widespread storms will develop each day this pattern is in place. The problem is, the pattern will be very stagnant, with this low staying across Texas through much of next week, and high pressure remaining firm across the eastern U.S.

Rain chances will be in the 50-70% range Monday through Friday. In this type of setup, a sharp west-to-east gradient of heavier rainfall usually takes shape. This means places in eastern Texas may pick up 6-12 inches of rainfall through the week, while places further east–such as Lafayette–may pick up 1-2 inches. For this reason, the position of both the high-pressure ridge and the cut-off low will be important. As of now, most of the global models, including the GFS and European model, keep the heaviest rainfall totals across eastern Texas. In fact, both models show parts of eastern Texas receiving 6-12 inches through next Friday, while Acadiana escapes with 2-5 inches.

This will lead to a flooding potential across eastern Texas next week. As of now, I would expect just a good soaking across Acadiana, but we’ll have to watch models closely through next week as a difference in position of these features will make a big difference in terms of who gets the heaviest rainfall.

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