Weather is expected to be quiet on Monday with sunshine and cooler weather. This is expected to change on Tuesday, however, as a strong storm system approaches the area.

As an upper-level system approaches the region, a surface low pressure is expected to develop across southeastern Texas Tuesday morning. This low will strengthen through the day, ejecting northeastward into southern Louisiana. As this low pressure moves into the area, it will increase wind shear in the atmosphere. In fact, wind shear is expected to be very high with winds changing both direction and speed with height. Wind shear creates rotating storms and is needed for severe weather. This low will also create very strong southeasterly winds, pulling warm, moist air into the region. On top of wind shear, you also need this warm, unstable air for a more robust severe weather event. This is the one aspect of Tuesday still in question.

Some models keep the track of this low pressure further to the south, keeping most of this instability offshore. Some models, however, move the low further to the north, putting us more into this warm sector of air, possibly leading to a higher more substantial severe weather threat. Any severe weather threat would most likely feature the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes, some possibly strong (EF2-EF3).

The Storm Prediction Center is currently going with a level 2 severe weather risk, primarily due to the lack of instability. This threat could increase, however, depending on the track of the low pressure.

Regardless of severe weather, very gusty winds are anticipated on Tuesday with this low pressure deepening right overhead. Winds will be sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts of 40-50 mph! This alone would be enough to knock out power in isolated areas. A quick 1-2 inches of rainfall could also be possible.

Prime time to see storms will be Tuesday late afternoon and into Tuesday night.