We saw mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures for today as the nice stretch of weather continued. Unfortunately, that will be coming to an end this week.
A southwesterly flow is developing in the mid-and-upper levels of the atmosphere, in response to a developing upper-level trough across the southwestern U.S. This will increase moisture in our atmosphere, leading to more cloud cover for tomorrow and Monday. With moisture and modest atmospheric lift, some showers could be possible both days, but rain coverage will be 20% or less and any shower activity should remain fairly light.
By Tuesday, this upper-level trough will increase in strength and become better defined, as it also continues to work eastward. This will increase wind shear in our atmosphere. Simultaneously, a cold front will work across southeastern Texas and central parts of the state. Storms will develop along this front on Tuesday, working from southwest-to-northeast. With the wind shear aloft, a modest severe threat could be possible, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes being the risk we’ll have to watch out for. Some higher rainfall totals could be possible as well for the central parts of the state through Wednesday.
By Wednesday, the front will work down to the south and a surface low pressure will develop across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will locally enhance the lift in the atmosphere, and Acadiana looks to see its most widespread rainfall during the day Wednesday.
Behind the front, clearing skies are expected Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with sunshine returning. Temperatures will be warm during each afternoon, while turning cooler at night.