WEATHER BLOG: Storms likely this afternoon with a low-end severe weather risk

Local

A cold front will work southeastward into the area this afternoon with this front serving as a surface trigger for storm development. Storms are already developing this morning across the northern portions of Acadiana and southeastern Texas. These storms will continue to work southwest-to-northeast, but also begin to develop further southeastward later in the day as the front sags south.

Some heavier rainfall could be possible today, especially if we get slow-moving or training thunderstorms. The good news is most models progress the storms through the area quickly through the afternoon. Timing of storms appears to be during the heart of the afternoon and through early evening.

A low-end severe weather threat is also present. With high-levels of moisture in the atmosphere, a widespread damaging wind threat looks unlikely, although damaging winds become more of a risk if storms become linear in nature. A lack of cold air aloft will also make it harder for hail to form, although hail is always possible on the northern side of a warm front. It appears the main threat will be for storms to gain rotation and drop isolated tornadoes. A widespread tornado event is not expected though and the threat is only a level 1 out of 5.

More of a light-to-moderate rainfall is expected tomorrow as the heaviest rain looks to be to our southwest, mainly across southeastern Texas. Another bout of heavy rainfall could be possible on Sunday, however, as the main front works through the region. Overall, rain totals of 2-4 inches could be possible through the weekend until the front clears us out on Sunday.

Behind the front, much colder temperatures for Monday and Tuesday!

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