Overcast skies expected for tonight as moisture continues to increase in our atmosphere. Mild temperatures also expected with south winds continuing. With atmospheric lift increasing, a few showers could be possible through the overnight hours and for tomorrow, but showers should be fairly light and short-lived through the day tomorrow.
By Tuesday, a strong upper-level impulse will begin to work into Texas. Meanwhile, a surface front will slip into the area, stalling out across southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. This front will serve as a trigger for storm development on Tuesday, so it appears storm chances will be increasing. Most of the wind dynamics should remain across Texas on Tuesday, so the severe threat across Acadiana appears minimal.
By Wednesday, however, the upper-level impulse will increase in strength, which will increase winds aloft. This will help to spawn a surface low pressure system across southeastern Texas early Wednesday, tracking eastward through the afternoon. On the south and southeastern side of this low pressure, warm/moist air will stream northward, destabilizing the atmosphere. With instability and wind dynamics, it appears the severe threat will be highest for Acadiana on Wednesday, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes both possible. Heavier rainfall could be possible through the Tuesday-Wednesday time-frame, with models showing the possibility of 1-3 inches of rainfall across the state.
By Thursday, the front will work through the area, clearing us out. Sunshine returns for the end of the week and the weekend with highs getting into the 60s each afternoon!