Strong-to-severe storms will be ongoing today north and west of a Beaumont/Alexandria line. Most of the storms will reside north of Acadiana through the afternoon and evening hours. Central and northern parts of the state, as well as southeastern Texas, could see hail producing and damaging wind producing storms through the evening. Activity is expected to dissipate overnight.
Heading through Sunday, the severe weather threat will shift southward. Storms will be ongoing across the ArkLaTex and across south-central Texas tomorrow morning. The activity across south-central Texas will likely develop into a complex of storms, moving towards Acadiana by the afternoon hours. The atmosphere during the afternoon hours will feature temperatures rapidly decreasing with height, along with dry pockets of air aloft. Both of these are good indicators of a large hail and damaging wind threat. For this reason, I believe wind gusts of 60 mph and large hail (possibly quarter/half-dollar sized) will be the biggest hazards during the afternoon. Wind shear in the atmosphere will not be particularly impressive at the time, so the tornado threat looks lower during the early and mid-afternoon hours.
By the evening hours, a surface low pressure will develop across southeastern Texas. This surface low, along with its mid-level counterpart, will continue to mature through the evening and overnight hours, increasing wind shear in the atmosphere over Acadiana. The greatest atmospheric lift, that will be present during the late afternoon hours, will be working northward through the evening hours. However, any storms that do manage to form late tomorrow night and into Monday morning could pose a tornado risk, as this will be when shear will be highest. On top of the severe weather threat, these cutoff low situations can sometimes produce heavy rainfall amounts as a south-to-north atmopsheric flow stays locked over the region for a longer period of time. Model indications show that 1-3 inches of rain could be possible area-wide, but like with Thursday’s system, you always have to prepare for the possibility of isolated higher amounts, particularly in these types of weather patterns.
BOTTOM LINE….Widespread storms will be likely across Acadiana tomorrow afternoon and early evening. Greatest threat with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. Storms may become more isolated through the late night hours, but these storms will pose more of a tornado threat as wind shear increases in the atmosphere. A Slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk has been painted across our area by the National Weather Service for tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see this upgraded to a Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) in a narrow band from southeastern Texas through southern Louisiana, where increasing wind shear could lead to a higher severe weather risk tomorrow evening. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches can be expected area-wide, but prepared for isolated higher amounts.
~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier