We’ve seen the off-and-on rain for today as scattered showers and thunderstorms have managed to develop across the area through this afternoon. Like we were saying last night, the main focus today has been to the north, as a slow-moving boundary and upper-level energy have focused the atmospheric lift more across northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana.
This front will slowly slide southward through the evening, but will halt before making it through the area overnight. I would not be surprised to see moisture bank up along this front, possibly producing a round of fog for tomorrow morning. Thereafter, this front could serve as a focus for shower and storm development tomorrow afternoon. However, this front will be working back northward for tomorrow, so it once again appears that the main storm focus will be north of Acadiana. I’ll go with rain coverage of around 40% through the day tomorrow.
The most robust day for Acadiana appears to be on Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will be strengthening as upper-level energy translates eastward into the area. This will help spawn a surface low pressure that will work across the area Wednesday afternoon. Both of these features will act to enhance the wind flow at their respective levels, meaning the atmosphere will become very energized. This could lead to a severe weather threat materializing, mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening, across Acadiana and stretching northeastward into Mississippi. The main hazards we’ll have to watch for are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
The action should be ending by early Thursday, bringing us cooler air for Thursday and Friday with the return of sunshine. This will be short-lived, however, as rain returns for the weekend.