WEATHER BLOG: Rain chances for weekend and early parts of next week as rare cool front draws near

Local

In the near-term, mild and muggy conditions continuing as I’m expecting highs in the lower 90s for your Friday with a few isolated storms popping up with the heat of the day. Feels like temperatures once again exceeding 100 degrees.

By the weekend, a mid-level disturbance will work across the area, increasing atmospheric instability and moisture. This will increase daily storm coverage starting Saturday and continuing through Sunday. Highs will be near 90 degrees each afternoon.

By the early parts of next week, a trough will begin to dig down into the eastern U.S. This will push a surface cool front into the heartland, giving them much needed relief from the heat. As the trough digs south, this front will continue southward through Monday, moving close to Acadiana on Tuesday.

This is when models diverge as the European model stalls the front over Acadiana, keeping high rain chances for us through Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

The GFS model, however, has storms Tuesday and later moves the front southward into the northern Gulf for Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS scenario would be awesome as drier and slightly cooler air would work southward into Acadiana. In fact, the GFS model is showing middle 60s heading through Wednesday morning with temperatures only rebounding into the low-mid 80s Wednesday afternoon.

Yes, this would be a rare treat in the heart of summer, but the GFS model is notorious for being too progressive with fronts and the upper-air pattern. My forecast closely resembles the European model, which I believe is a little more realistic in this scenario. I wouldn’t mind getting proven wrong though!

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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Overcast

Abbeville

70°F Overcast Feels like 70°
Wind
5 mph S
Humidity
92%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Thunderstorms likely. Low 63F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
62°F Thunderstorms likely. Low 63F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wind
8 mph SW
Precip
80%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Overcast

Crowley

70°F Overcast Feels like 70°
Wind
5 mph S
Humidity
97%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Showers and thundershowers likely. Low 58F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
62°F Showers and thundershowers likely. Low 58F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wind
8 mph SW
Precip
80%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Overcast

Opelousas

71°F Overcast Feels like 71°
Wind
6 mph SSW
Humidity
95%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. Low around 55F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
62°F Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. Low around 55F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%.
Wind
8 mph SW
Precip
80%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Overcast

Breaux Bridge

70°F Overcast Feels like 70°
Wind
6 mph S
Humidity
97%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Showers and thundershowers likely. Low 61F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
62°F Showers and thundershowers likely. Low 61F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Wind
8 mph SW
Precip
80%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Overcast

New Iberia

70°F Overcast Feels like 70°
Wind
8 mph S
Humidity
100%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Thunderstorms. Low 66F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
64°F Thunderstorms. Low 66F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Wind
7 mph S
Precip
70%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous

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