WEATHER BLOG: Heat near-term, increasing rain chances for weekend and early next week


High pressure will remain the dominant weather factor in our forecast, leading to hot temperatures each afternoon. Expect highs in the 92-94 degree range Thursday and Friday, with feels like temperatures in the 103-108 degree range during peak heating. Rain chances will remain isolated, only 20% each afternoon with the seabreeze.

The pattern will change by the weekend. A piece of energy, in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, will get cut-off from the main flow and drift southwestward across the southeastern U.S. This feature will continue to drift west into Acadiana by Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. This will lead to increased moisture and atmospheric lift, leading to an increase in rain coverage for the weekend.

By the early parts of next week, a stronger trough will begin to dig across the eastern U.S. A surface cool front will work southeastward into the Mississippi River valley by Monday. This front will get close enough to the area to provide widespread storms on Tuesday.

Still a big question as to if the front will actually work through Acadiana. They usually don’t this time of year, but the GFS model attempts to show the front working into the northern Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. IF this were to happen, overnight lows could dip down into the low-mid-60s by next Thursday morning. This would be some 8-10 degrees below average for this time of year.

The European model, however, keeps the front hung up to the north, keeping us in the moist sector through the end of next week. GFS may be giving us false hope, but we’ll see!

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