We lucked out today as most of the storm activity has stayed across southwestern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. Models have this activity dissipating later tonight before making it into Acadiana. Quiet conditions overnight tonight with warm and humid temperatures.
By tomorrow an upper-level low will break off from the main flow, which is currently over the northern portions of the country. This upper-level low will slowly retrograde southwestward, moving right over the area tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday. This upper-level low gives us cold air aloft, which makes the atmosphere unstable. It also creates atmospheric lift, which is needed for the development of storms.
Along with the upper-level low, deep moisture will be over the region. This means that storms could be efficient rain producers–dumping 2-3 inches per hour. Because of this, and relatively slow storm motion expected, heavier rainfall totals could be possible in isolated areas through Tuesday. We’re not talking any major flood threat, but isolated flash flooding and ponding on the roadways could be possible each afternoon through Tuesday.
On Wednesday, this low will finally get absorbed into a trough and will move away from the area. In its place, a dome of high pressure will build across Texas and Louisiana. This will lead to hotter temperatures by the end of next week.
