We saw a few storms develop out there this afternoon as moisture surged northward. Instability and atmospheric lift is beginning to increase across the area as an upper-level trough is approaching the area from the west.
Father’s Day will be hot, with readings in the lower 90s during the afternoon. Humidity will be high so feels like temperatures could be in the 95-100 degree range, especially near storms. A few storms could be possible in the afternoon, but rain coverage will only be near 30%. Models try to show more robust storm activity across Texas tomorrow afternoon, but has this activity dissipating before moving into Acadiana. We always have to watch these storm complexes this time of year though.
The upper-level trough will get closer Monday and Tuesday. With deep southwesterly flow aloft, deep tropical moisture will work across the area. Atmospheric lift will increase with weakness aloft and precipitable water will exceed 2 inches. When that occurs in the summer, it usually means scattered to widespread storm action. Rain chances could be in the 50-60% range Monday and Tuesday afternoon with some storms containing locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning.
Storm chances more in the isolated range by Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as high pressure slowly builds across the area. With a lowering of storm chances, this could also mean rising temperatures with highs possibly in the 92-94 degree range for the end of the week and the weekend.
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