TROPICAL UPDATE: Beta moves towards Texas, impacts expected across Louisiana

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Tropical Storm Beta is now working westward very slowly across the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The storm has winds of 60 mph and a pressure of 994mb as of the 4pm advisory. The storm is nearly stationary, but a slow move to the west is anticipated through the next 24-48 hours.

Beta will slowly work westward towards Texas tomorrow and Monday. As Beta battles dry air and modest wind shear, it may continue to struggle to strengthen and the National Hurricane Center no longer has Beta achieving hurricane status before moving inland over Texas. The storm could still make a run at hurricane status, however, as sea-surface temperatures are warm, which could help convection development. Meanwhile, outer rainbands will develop on the northeastern side of the system, swinging into south Louisiana tomorrow and Monday. Some of these storms could contain some isolated gusty winds. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center has issued a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for Vermilion and Cameron parishes through tomorrow. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Iberia and St. Mary parish.

Tides will also start to increase across coastal southwestern Louisiana and a STORM SURGE WATCH has been issued for Cameron parish, where surge could be on the order of 2-4 feet. This water would likely creep in tomorrow and Monday as a strong southeasterly wind pushes this water onshore.

Due to a trough, Beta will then swing northeast closer to Louisiana by Wednesday and Thursday. I’m not expecting a wind threat across Acadiana as it appears Beta will be inland as it makes its northeasterly turn. Also, dry air will continue to wrap into the circulation, further weakening the system. This dry air and the prospects of it wrapping around the circulation will be crucial in dictating how much rainfall we see through the next few days.

Stronger storms and heavier rainfall will begin to set up just south of the Louisiana coastline overnight tonight. Some of these storms will begin to work inland for Sunday, impacting areas mainly along and south of I-10. This is the GFS model showing atmospheric moisture for Monday. Notice, a plume of deep tropical moisture sets up over the southern parts of the state. In fact, some high-resolution models have a nasty outer rainband setting up over the southern parts of the state on Monday. Again, these outer rainbands look to mainly affect areas along and south of I-10. Northern areas look to get in on the action Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as the storm finally gains latitude. However, the GFS model shows dry air wrapping around the circulation and into the area on Tuesday. This could limit the flooding rain potential Tuesday and Wednesday, even though the storm will be closer to us.

Bottom line, when adding up rainfall totals Sunday through next Friday, totals of 2-4 inches could be possible north of I-10, while totals of 4-6 inches will be possible south of I-10. More importantly, the threat of flash flooding substantially increases across southern parishes, especially Sunday and Monday. Isolated amounts of 3-5 inches could be possible north of I-10, but isolated totals of 6-10 inches could be possible south of I-10, where we’ll have to more closely watch the threat for flash flooding. I think the greatest chance to see this flash flooding would be on Monday.

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Abbeville

61°F Feels like 61°
Wind
3 mph ENE
Humidity
89%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Partly cloudy. Low around 60F. Winds light and variable.
60°F Partly cloudy. Low around 60F. Winds light and variable.
Wind
3 mph NE
Precip
10%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Clear

Crowley

61°F Clear Feels like 61°
Wind
5 mph ENE
Humidity
100%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Partly cloudy skies. Low near 60F. Winds light and variable.
60°F Partly cloudy skies. Low near 60F. Winds light and variable.
Wind
4 mph NE
Precip
10%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Overcast

Opelousas

61°F Overcast Feels like 61°
Wind
5 mph NE
Humidity
90%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

Cloudy early with some clearing expected late. Low 57F. Winds light and variable.
57°F Cloudy early with some clearing expected late. Low 57F. Winds light and variable.
Wind
4 mph NE
Precip
10%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Clear

Breaux Bridge

60°F Clear Feels like 60°
Wind
3 mph NE
Humidity
93%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

A few clouds. Low around 60F. Winds light and variable.
60°F A few clouds. Low around 60F. Winds light and variable.
Wind
4 mph NE
Precip
0%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous
Clear

New Iberia

62°F Clear Feels like 62°
Wind
7 mph ENE
Humidity
100%
Sunrise
Sunset

Tonight

A few clouds from time to time. Low 59F. Winds light and variable.
59°F A few clouds from time to time. Low 59F. Winds light and variable.
Wind
5 mph NE
Precip
0%
Sunset
Moon Phase
Waxing Gibbous

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