Tropical Depression Three officially formed yesterday in the Bay of Campeche, which is the very southern extent of the Gulf of Mexico. TD Three is expected to spin in the Bay over the next few days and should continue to organize and strengthen. The National Hurricane Center forecast cone shows Tropical Storm Cristobal forming later today.

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Forecast uncertainty becomes much higher as we head into the weekend. The possible tropical storm should start to move northward towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it should further strengthen and organize. The track, intensity, and organization of this system in the 6-8 day range is unknown at this time. Models show a wide range of scenarios as we head through Sunday into early next week.

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I think Acadiana should begin to mentally prepare that we could see some tropical impacts from this disturbance starting as early as Sunday. The forecast confidence remains very low as we continue to monitor and analyzing each new model runs.

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Keep it tuned to KLFY throughout the week as we’ll be providing updates as needed.

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