A partly sunny day for today with warm temperatures expected. Highs will be in the mid-80s with southeast winds. Today will be mostly dry, but rain chances will increase later tonight and tomorrow.
A front will move through the area tomorrow afternoon. In fact, tomorrow’s high temperature, in the lower 70s, may actually occur during the morning hours, with temperatures falling through the afternoon. A steady stream of light-to-moderate rainfall will move across the area through Friday and Saturday. Rainfall totals won’t be incredibly high with this activity, and it won’t rain all day either day, but any rainfall we receive is beneficial.
Sunday’s forecast is up in the air as the European model shows rainfall continuing, but the GFS model dries us out temporarily. I’ll split the difference and go with a 30-40% rain chance on Sunday. The forecast becomes a little tricky and more uncertain for both Monday and Tuesday of next week, mainly due to model differences. The European model has been the most aggressive developing a surface low pressure across the northern Gulf Monday, giving us heavy rainfall through the day on Monday, and moving east of us on Tuesday. The GFS model has been mostly dry through this period, but recent runs have trended a bit closer to the European model. The GFS model now develops a low pressure across the Gulf, but it stays to our south on Monday. This would keep the heaviest rainfall offshore on Monday, however, southeastern Louisiana gets a glancing blow on Tuesday.
Some differences still need to be ironed out, but I’m leaning toward the European model at this time, especially with the GFS trending more and more in its direction. Expect healthy rain chances through next Tuesday, with the possibility of a couple of inches of rainfall accumulation.