Monitoring the Caribbean Sea for Tropical Development

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Over the next week, we will need to keep a close eye on the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico for tropical development from two separate tropical waves.

The first wave is located in the western Caribbean Sea and has the highest likelihood for development. A broad area of low pressure is forming over the western Caribbean as it slowly moves west to northwest. Further development and organization is expected with this disturbance as it moves into the Bay of Campeche early next week. The National Hurricane Center has a high chance of 90% for development over the next 2 days. Models are showing a tropical system meandering around the southern Gulf for several days.

The second wave is located near the Lesser Antilles and is currently moving westward. The National Hurricane Center only has a 30% chance for tropical development with this wave.

It is way too early in the forecasting period to know if any systems that form will bring impacts to the United States. We are in the “wait and see” stage. There are some models that point to a tropical system entering the Gulf over the next 1-2 weeks. The next name on the list is Gamma.

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