An unsettled weather pattern is beginning to take shape across the area as an upper-level trough noses into the area. Southwesterly flow aloft will swing multiple disturbances into the area through the weekend with moisture levels remaining high.
A combination of these features will be enough to spark widespread storms each afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes due to daytime heating. Rain coverage will be 40-60% Wednesday through next Tuesday. Storms could be slow-moving and efficient rain-producers, especially this weekend. This could lead to some ponding on the roadways and flash flooding as some storms could dump 1.5-2 inches per hour in spots. Cumulatively, rainfall totals of 3-6 inches could be possible through early next week, with isolated higher amounts.
Today marks the first official day of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. June is typically a quiet month, but any tropical formation usually occurs in the southern Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean, very close to the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. These disturbances are usually large and disorganized but can produce flooding rains.
Activity usually begins to pick up in late July or early August, with the peak of the season being in early September.