Disturbance draws deep tropical moisture north, storms/breeze for Father’s Day

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Isolated storms will be possible through the evening hours as moisture begins to stream in from the southeast. These storms will begin to diminish through the next few hours as we lose the daytime heating. Short-range models try to show another round of storms developing across coastal areas between 3-7am.

FutureRadar (HRRR Model): 5am Sunday morning

This is due to a surface trough of low pressure that is currently across the south-central Gulf of Mexico, which will be moving northward towards the Texas coast by tomorrow. Don’t be surprised to see lightning off to the south if you’re up early in the morning. Models have these storms moving northward by mid-morning, producing heavier rainfall across the area. It is quite possible that we get a break in the activity by Noon, but another round could develop in the afternoon. Even though the rain chance is 70%, I do not believe it will rain ALL day. However, most of the area should receive some rainfall with a round or two of storms coming in. 

With the surface trough of low pressure to our south, a southeasterly breeze is expected tomorrow, as winds could be in the 10-20 mph range. Conditions offshore could get rough starting tonight, especially across deepwater drilling zones, with southeast winds of 20-30 knots and seas approaching 10-15 feet.

Image: Current wave heights across the Gulf of Mexico

In terms of tropical development, this system currently lacks a surface low pressure and will not have very long to acquire one. Development chances are low, but the effects will be the same, with heavy rainfall expected across Texas through Monday. 

Rainfall totals of 5-7 inches could be possible across southeastern Texas through next Wednesday. More modest totals are expected are Acadiana with the possibility of 1-2 inches of rain through next Wednesday. Isolated higher amounts could be possible, especially across western portions of the state. Flooding is not expected to be much of a concern as the storms will be coming in in rounds and not continuously. However, like with normal summertime thunderstorms, ponding on the roadways could be possible if an area receives heavy rainfall over a short period of time. 

Image: GFS model showing rainfall totals through next Wednesday

The deeper tropical moisture will stay with us through Monday and Tuesday, keeping a healthy rain chance in the forecast. By the end of next week, we will return to the usual run-of-the-mill summertime storms with highs getting back into the low 90s. 

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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