Trevor's Weather Blog: Stormy Tuesday, blast of Arctic air later this week

A mild evening is expected with winds turning more southeasterly later on tonight. For that reason, temperatures won't drop all that much, possibly not even getting into the 50s by morning. Models do show that another round of dense fog could be possible tomorrow morning. This morning, widespread visibility of below a quarter-mile, and even near zero, was observed. Drive slow on your morning commute tomorrow if indeed another round of fog develops.

It will be a warm and windy afternoon as low pressure garners strength across the lower-plains. South winds will be in the 8-16 mph range, bringing moisture into our atmosphere. Highs will be well-above average, possibly reaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. A few showers will be possible by afternoon and evening, especially across western areas.

By Tuesday, a strong Arctic front will be approaching Acadiana from the north. The day will start off warm and muggy, but showers and storms will begin to move in by afternoon. Although a strong wind gust or two could be possible, widespread/organized severe weather remains unlikely as the brunt of the atmospheric energy with this system will move to the north of Acadiana. However, a quick inch or two of rainfall could be possible as these storms quickly roll through the area. Timing on the front appears to be during the afternoon hours. Behind it, northerly winds will be rapidly increasing and temperatures will be dropping quickly. A twenty degree drop in temperature could be observed through the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday.

The front will move south of the area by Wednesday and Thursday, but it appears some remnant upper-level energy may develop across Texas and move through the area. This could keep some light rains in the forecast for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Parts of north-central Texas could even get some frozen precipitation with this event Wednesday night and Thursday, but it appears it will be all rain for Acadiana as temperatures should remain well above freezing.

Models have been flip-flopping in terms of our second cold blast of air which could come in by next weekend. Models this morning were much colder, bringing in another Arctic blast by Saturday, dropping temperatures into the 40s/50s for highs and lows near freezing. Afternoon runs have backed off a bit, now keeping moderate temperatures, in the 60s, for the weekend. The forecast for the weekend may have to be revised accordingly through the week, based on how models end up handling the situation.

~Meteorologist Trevor Sonnier

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